PGR: Not So Sunny June; Weak PIF Should Weigh On Shares

Research evidence excerpt

PGR: Not So Sunny June; Weak PIF Should Weigh On Shares

Equity Research

Flash Comment — July 15, 2026

Personal Lines Insurance

The Progressive Corporation

Not So Sunny June; Weak PIF Should Weigh On Shares Underweight

Price Target: $205.00

Ticker PGR

Our Call Upside/(Downside) to Target (9.5)%

June EPS of $1.35 beat our $1.11 and Street's $1.25 on better cats and favorable reserve Price (07/14/2026) $226.58

development, which offset a weaker underlying combined ratio. Personal auto PIF was 52 Week Range $189.20 - 254.93

+45k, well below our +72k and Street's +146k and slowing vs. +134k in May. Market Cap (MM) $132,980

Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

Initial Thoughts NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate

The stock: PGR shares should underperform. While EPS beat, personal auto PIF growth Elyse Greenspan, CFA

slowed significantly, the underlying loss and expense ratio missed, and written premium Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Elyse.Greenspan@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8031

also missed with average premium per policy down significantly in agency and direct

(-6.9% in agency and -4.6% in direct). The +45k monthly personal auto PIF additions is Hristian Getsov

lowest since November 2023 (when PIF growth was negative). Slowing PIF growth and Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Hristian.Getsov@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-5309

margin pressure support our recent downgrade to Underweight (see note).

Dominick Cioffi

June 2026 Variance (Key Metrics) Associate Equity Analyst | Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Dominick.Cioffi@wellsfargo.com | 212-214-8121

Jun-26 Delta (%) vs Beat / Miss

Variance vs WFS and Consensus

Actual WFS Cons WFS Cons WFS Cons

Operating EPS $1.35 $1.11 $1.25 21.8% 8.1% Beat Beat