PGR: Growth Flo-ing the Wrong Way; Remain Underweight Post June Results

Research evidence excerpt

PGR: Growth Flo-ing the Wrong Way; Remain Underweight Post June Results

Equity Research

Price Target Change — July 15, 2026

Personal Lines Insurance

The Progressive Corporation

Growth Flo-ing the Wrong Way; Remain Underweight Post Underweight

June Results Price Target: $198.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

PGR shares significantly underperformed (-9.5% vs. S&P 500 +0.2%) given the weak Price Target $198.00 $205.00 -3.4%

PIF growth and weaker underlying margins. Our recent downgrade to Underweight was EPS 2026 17.00 17.90 -5.0%

centered around slowing PIF growth and deteriorating margins, which showed this month. EPS 2027 14.20 14.70 -3.4%

Rev. (MM) 2026 91.72B 91.97B -0.3%

The stock from here: We expect shares to be challenged as PIF growth remains subdued Rev. (MM) 2027 95.59B 96.55B -1.0%

and margins continue to deteriorate given slowing premium per policy, which was also

evident in the CPI report yesterday (note). We still think Street numbers are too high, as Ticker PGR

we are ~13.5% below consensus for 2027 and 2028, primarily from weaker underlying

Upside/(Downside) to Target (3.5)%

margins and weaker growth. A tough growth environment + peaked margins keep us

Underweight, as meaningful acceleration in Robinsons growth will take time. Price (07/15/2026) $205.22

52 Week Range $189.20 - 254.93

EPS estimates lowered for all years / price target lower: Our 2026, 2027, and 2028 EPS Market Cap (MM) $120,444

estimates go down to $17.00, $14.20, and $14.05 (from $17.90, $14.70 and $14.25), Enterprise Value (MM) $128,706

reflecting AYLR adjustments in personal auto, lower NII, and lower premium growth, Average Daily Value (MM) $647

partially offset by higher favorable PYD. Our price target goes to $198 (from $205) based Dividend Yield 0.2%