Beginning of Summer Soft Season

Research evidence excerpt

Beginning of Summer Soft Season

Insurance

Progressive Corp. (PGR)

EQUITY RESEARCH Company Update

June 17, 2026

Beginning of Summer Soft Season Price: $204.66

Price Target: $220.00 Progressive's May report was broadly in line with our estimates, with policy

Rating: Neutral adds tracking seasonal norms and underlying profitability holding steady.

Key Statistics: The print itself is not an issue; May's ~134k PIF adds were consistent with

Symbol NYSE: PGR what we expected for a soft summer month. The bigger concern is what

52-Week Range 188.05 - 253.79 comes after: without a meaningful pickup in the back half of the year,

Market Cap 119,419.1 the previously implied ~9% annualized PIF growth target looks increasingly ADV (3 mo) 2,932,534

out of reach, and we are hesitant to give the company credit for a re- Shares Out (M) 583.5

acceleration that has yet to materialize.

Research Analysts: Growth: Progressive added ~134k policies in May, a modest sequential

Ryan Tunis improvement from April's ~125k and roughly in line with seasonal 917-746-8827

Ryan.Tunis@cantor.com expectations. Unlike April, which was weaker than expected, May's softer

Luc Nelson policy growth was more consistent with normal seasonal patterns, with

929-717-3880 June and July likely to show similar trends. The more telling data point is

Luc.Nelson@cantor.com the year-over-year trend in monthly adds: May '24: ~427k, May '25: ~246k,

and May '26 came in at ~134k, a clear and consistent step-down each year One-Year Price History

that underscores the deceleration in growth momentum. That said, the

300 280 cumulative picture still matters: two consecutive months of sub-150k adds

260 keeps the path to ~9% annualized PIF growth under meaningful pressure,

220 with no seasonal relief ahead.