PGR: Remain in Neutral Mode; Model Update Post May Results

Research evidence excerpt

PGR: Remain in Neutral Mode; Model Update Post May Results

Equity Research

Price Target Change — June 17, 2026

Personal Lines Insurance

The Progressive Corporation

Remain in Neutral Mode; Model Update Post May Results Equal Weight

Price Target: $219.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

PGR modestly outperformed (+0.1% vs S&P 500 -1.2%) as stronger monthly result was Price Target $219.00 $222.00 -1.4%

counterbalanced by softness of sector. We remain on sidelines as margins should continue EPS 2026 18.00 15.85 13.6%

to deteriorate as rate decreases earn in and growth should continue moderating. EPS 2027 14.80 14.70 0.7%

Rev. (MM) 2026 92.00B 91.49B 0.6%

The stock from here: Although this was a strong month, our outlook remains unchanged Rev. (MM) 2027 97.76B 97.68B 0.1%

as competition should remain elevated and rate decreases should persist, limiting chance

of meaningful re-rating from here. In addition, our EPS estimates are still 7% / 9% below Ticker PGR

Street in 2027 / 2028 given weaker underlying margin assumptions. With a 86.3% YTD

Upside/(Downside) to Target 7.1%combined ratio, rate decreases should persist and we could perhaps see additional Florida

policyholder refunds towards the back half of the year. Price (06/17/2026) $204.42

52 Week Range $189.20 - 267.92

EPS estimates up modestly for forward years / price target lower: Our 2026, 2027, Market Cap (MM) $119,974

and 2028 EPS estimates go up to $18.00, $14.80, and $14.55 (from $15.85, $14.70 and Enterprise Value (MM) $128,236

$14.50), reflecting AYLR adjustments in personal auto, higher NII and lower share count Average Daily Value (MM) $599

(from higher assumed 2026 buybacks). Our price target goes to $219 (from $222) based Dividend Yield 0.2%