PGR May 2026: Robust Favorable PYD and Light Catastrophes

Research evidence excerpt

PGR May 2026: Robust Favorable PYD and Light Catastrophes

Nonlife Insurance

Personal Lines - Market Weight

PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION (PGR) June 17, 2026

PGR May 2026: Robust Favorable PYD and Light Rating:

Catastrophes Peer Perform

Price:

$205.21

The Wolfe Byte Price Target:

Lighter catastrophe losses and more robust favorable PYD drive EPS beat. We NA

attribute the underlying loss ratio beat to improving loss trends including lower View PGR Model

View Comp Tablefrequency from high gas prices. With excess capital and slower growth, buybacks

remain elevated. Company Information

52-Week Range $190 - $267

Market Cap. (MM) $119,590

We think PGR is leaving growth opportunities on the table as it is taking a cautious Enterprise Value (MM) $128,322

stance on competitive pricing. PGR's May. '26 sequential auto PIF growth maintained Shares Out. (MM) 584.3

Avg. Value Traded (MM) $522.57

at +0.5% (vs our +0.7% estimate) flat from April's +0.5%. PGR filed slightly more SI% of Float 1.2%

competitive rate decreases in May (–1.4% vs. industry –1.0% see exhibit 5 - ex FL, in Dividend Yield 0.2%

FL PGR filed a -4.1% decrease in May), but can take more in theory. Higher buybacks Price Performance

can smooth EPS implications from margin compression. PGR, however, is cautious YTD LTM

given the specter of tariffs (as per the 10Q). PGR (3)% (23)%

SPX 10% 26%

Underlying loss ratio improved by 110bps m/m and 130bps y/y. PGR's current WRPI (1)% (13)%

combined ratios are well below 96% (i.e. May's combined ratio was 82.1% given 280

lower cats). We suspect that higher gas prices is driving lower miles driven and in 270 260

250turn less claims activity.

Higher favorable PYD and lighter cats were the key drivers of the EPS beat. May cat 230220

losses came in at just $106.2mn (1.4 pts) vs.