ODFL: Live From The Truist Securities Industrials & Services Conference

Research evidence excerpt

ODFL: Live From The Truist Securities Industrials & Services Conference

Truist Securities

Valuation and Risks

Our $225 price target is based on ~38x our 2027E adj. EPS. This compares to the industry's historical 16x-28x historical trading range and

with ODFL's 5-year historical trading range of 22x-38x. Not only have ODFL shares historically traded at a premium to its peer group given

its industry leading operating ratios, but we believe that this premium warrants itself looking ahead given the possibility for the company

to continue improving OR as LTL weight / shipment improves over the coming quarters with increased PMI levels.

Risks

North American Macro-Economic Dependency – ODFL operates in an environment where it has exposure to all of the different North

American regions. Any risk of an economic recession across the region could negatively impact ODFL’s ability to generate revenue and

operate efficiently.

Supply Chain Risk – Any hiccups to the domestic and global supply chain could lead to significant impacts around ODFL’s ability to

Environment Regulations & Government Regulations - ODFL’s operations are highly dependent on the use of its ground vehicles. A

change in governmental regulations around vehicle emissions could have a potential negative impact on ODFL’s ability to operate.

Vehicle Fuel Costs – Fuel costs represent a large portion of the company’s annual expenses. Increases in the price of crude oil could

lead to elevated fuel costs for the company which would consequently lead to operating margin risk.

Labor Availability – ODFL’s ability to source and maintain quality labor is imperative around its operations.

Climate/Weather Challenges – Any climate related issues across different geographic parts of the U.S., could impact the company’s ability