Transportation & Logistics LTL: 2Q26 Mid-Quarter Updates Reflect Continued Demand Momentum Heading into 2H26

Research evidence excerpt

Transportation & Logistics LTL: 2Q26 Mid-Quarter Updates Reflect Continued Demand Momentum Heading into 2H26

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

08 June 2026

Transportation & Logistics

LTL: 2Q26 Mid-Quarter Updates Reflect Continued

Demand Momentum Heading into 2H26

Airfreight & Surface Transportation /

Shipping

Brian P. Ossenbeck, CFA AC

(1-212) 622-1023

brian.p.ossenbeck@jpmorgan.com

2Q26 LTL mid-quarter updates were modestly better than anticipated, with Grady Carr

tonnage mostly outperforming normal seasonality and management teams (1-212) 622-1251

grady.carr@jpmchase.com

pointing to an incrementally more constructive pricing backdrop as demand

Brandon Wexler

improves and shippers increasingly prioritize service. Heavier shipments helped

(1-212) 622-1956

ODFL outperform normal seasonality in May while yield ex-fuel is tracking above brandon.wexler@jpmchase.com

the company’s 2Q guide despite a headwind from weight. SAIA’s tonnage J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

accelerated in May on a YoY basis, though this was a function of an easier comp

as shipments came in below normal seasonality, while shipments out of the LA

region remain a headwind to mix. Tonnage at XPO came in slightly ahead of

normal seasonality, with management noting that recent ISM strength has recently

started to show up in volumes which gained momentum in recent weeks. ARCB’s

tonnage was driven by a meaningful step-up in weight per shipment as TL spillover

increased, while management improved its 2Q OR outlook and cited higher-for-

longer fuel prices as a key driver of the change. Overall, the May updates provided

further evidence that industrial demand continues on a path of gradual

improvement, with LTL volumes building momentum after five consecutive

months of ISM expansion.