Freight & Logistics: 2Q26 Transportation Sector Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Freight & Logistics: 2Q26 Transportation Sector Preview

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constructive operating environment during 2H26.

At the same time, industry capacity remains rational across both truckload and LTL

markets. We continue to believe this recovery is fundamentally different from prior

cycles, as supply has tightened meaningfully without a corresponding surge in freight

demand. As volumes gradually improve, this disciplined supply backdrop should provide

favorable operating leverage across much of our coverage universe.

What to Expect This Earnings Season

Within LTL, we expect another quarter of healthy pricing execution, resilient margins,

and modest sequential improvement in shipment trends. While demand is unlikely to

have accelerated materially during the quarter, we believe investors will increasingly

focus on management commentary around July activity, industrial end-market trends,

and expectations for 2H26. We continue to believe LTL offers the highest-quality

exposure to an improving industrial economy given the combination of disciplined

pricing, favorable operating leverage (driven by increased weight per shipment), and

structural barriers to entry.

Within truckload and brokerage, we expect management teams to highlight continues

progress in the market recovery, supported by disciplined capacity and improving spot

market conditions. Although contractual pricing and freight demand remain works in

progress, we believe commentary surrounding bid activity, carrier exits, gross margin

progression, and customer shipping trends will be more important than quarterly

earnings variability.

Across the sector, we expect investors to focus on several key questions,

including:

• Are shipment trends continuing to improve as 3Q26 begins?