Trucking & Logistics Roundtable: TL Contract Rates Now Trending +20%-30%

Research evidence excerpt

Trucking & Logistics Roundtable: TL Contract Rates Now Trending +20%-30%

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC INDUSTRY UPDATE

July 10, 2026

■Air Freight Trucking & Logistics Roundtable: TL Contract

■Airfreight & Surface Transportation:

Trucking Rates Now Trending +20%-30%

■Airfreight & Surface Transportation: Air

Freight & Logistics

■Airfreight & Surface Transportation: Rail

Jason H. Seidl THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1404

Private trucking and logistics panelists were incrementally bullish ahead of Q2 earnings. New

jason.seidl@tdsecurities.com

TL contracts are trending as high as +20-30%, with a noteworthy pickup in demand over

Elliot Alper the last few months. Driver availability is leading to pay increases in 2H. LTL trends suggest

646 562 1403 improved demand and stable to modestly improving pricing trends.

elliot.alper@tdsecurities.com

Uday Khanapurkar, CFA ■Private trucking carriers are seeing annualized rates in the mid-to-high teens, but some

646 562 1362 new contract rate increases are now in the 20%-30% range, well above levels just a

uday.khanapurkar@tdsecurities.com quarter ago. For reference, our TL models currently incorporate HSD yield increases on

average in '26 and '27, and pricing gains of that magnitude would likely imply upside to

estimates even after accounting for driver pay increases. One truckload panelist said their

revenues increased 38% in Q2, and carriers are going back to customers to revisit contracts

that were struck only earlier this year. Shippers are discussing dedicated options more now

given they are well aware of the tightness in the market that is only expected to continue.

Incremental pricing strength was evident across the panel with confidence in 2H and '27,

which bodes well for TL earnings despite high investor expectations.