Freight for Thought: Talk is cheap (AMZN threat to LTLs)

Research evidence excerpt

Freight for Thought: Talk is cheap (AMZN threat to LTLs)

10 June 2026

Freight for Thought

with several gating factors, like zoning restrictions (read Freight for Thought:

LTLs - Highlights: Expert Call w/ Former CCO of Yellow).

…And if AMZN did have ambitions of becoming a more formidable “full-fledged

nationwide asset-based operator”…why didn’t it participate in any of the former

Yellow-terminal auctions?

While Amazon attended a creditors' meeting during the early stages of Yellow’s

bankruptcy in 2023, they ultimately skipped the bidding process.

Hence, without the added capital investment, we continue to think AMZN is

deploying more of an "asset-light” approach to its LTL-offering (3PL brokerage

service, akin to what is offered by CHRW and RXO).

What this means is it relies more on third-party providers of asset-based LTL

solutions to satisfy its customers needs in LTL. We think this is similar to WMT’s

strategy, with the retailer also enhancing its program for LTL a few weeks ago

(see video in its press release for a visual depiction).

Lastly, let’s talk about how it’s gone since AMZN launched inbound LTL service

offering, about 18 months ago.

We chatted with XPO this morning. The carrier reminded us that AMZN has not

shown up meaningfully in any RFPs since launch. They haven’t lost any customers

to AMZN. And of the LTL industry-leading Mastio survey of approximately 1600

shippers, we think only one cited using AMZN.

That said, while we write all of this, we acknowledge the sharp investor quip we

received this morning: talk is cheap “…but the stocks are not.”

ODFL, SAIA, XPO, and FDXF are trading at an average 38x 2027 numbers. This,

we admit, makes them more vulnerable to any bad news.

However, we don’t think this level of valuations has recently stopped them from