Inside Freight

Research evidence excerpt

Inside Freight

June 7, 2026

Company: Risks That May Impede Achievement of the Recommendation, Rating or Target

Price:

ArcBest Corporation Upside Risks: better than expected pricing as ARCB reduces exposure to dynamic

pricing program; better than expected LTL margins and tonnage; improved Asset-

Light returns; M&A opportunities.

Downside Risks: Continued earnings pressure from weak Asset-Light earnings;

pension contribution risk over time following YELL bankruptcy; new capacity from

YELL terminals comes online and dilutes pricing; macro environment deteriorates

and LTL tonnage and pricing decline.

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. Upside Risks: Tonnage declines materially moderate and net yields increase more

than expected; reacceleration of market share gains from competitors with poor

service and TL carriers post-YELL bankruptcy; more aggressive capital returns to

shareholders.

Saia, Inc. Downside Risks: Weaker-than-expected incremental margins; increased industry

competition in the next cycle following YELL's bankruptcy, and therefore increased

pressure on pricing or share gains; high valuation; near-term earnings risk.

XPO, Inc. Upside Risks: Better ISM environment; continued share gains; continued pricing

gains; execution on productivity initiatives; Europe divestiture.

Downside Risks: CapEx spent on improving service is larger than expected;

new capacity from YELL terminals comes online and dilutes pricing; LTL margin

improvement takes longer than expected; pricing gains from service improvements

take longer than expected; macro environment deteriorates and LTL tonnage

declines materially.

Wolfe Research, LLC Research Disclosures:

Company: Research Disclosures:

ArcBest Corporation None

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. None

Saia, Inc. None

XPO, Inc. None