LOANS: C&I Still On Siesta

Research evidence excerpt

LOANS: C&I Still On Siesta

Truist Securities

Equity Research Report July 19, 2026

FINANCIALS: Banks

C&I loans were soft in the latest Fed H8, and while individual data points can bounce

Brian Foran around this is now ten straight weeks with balances holding flat overall. We are still

212-303-4146 inclined to call it a temporary pause rather than an inflection - the first round of banks'

Brian.Foran@truist.com conference calls were relatively upbeat, and the data has been weakest at foreign and

large banks at a time when spreads have ripped tighter, suggesting some of it may

Chris Lian be a transfer back to capital markets. Still, slower commercial lending is a risk we are

212-303-4199 watching, and at the least may explain why banks have been a bit reluctant to take full

Chris.Lian@truist.com year guidance higher after a strong first half.

7 Page Document

As shown below commercial & industrial (C&I) loan balances at the banks have flattened

out over the past ten weeks. The Fed does make some downward revisions at this time

Reasons for this report of year but that is not the main driver, the trend is similar on both the seasonally adjusted

and non-seasonally adjusted data.

✓ Quick Reaction to Newsflow/Volatility

Exhibit 1 - C&I loans at the banks have flattened out for ten

weeks now in the Fed H8 data

Source: Fed H8 All Commercial Banks, Truist Securities.

The first two weeks of July have been especially soft. For the weeks ending July 1 and

July 8th the reported C&I balances have declined $(10)bn and $(21)bn respectively,

which the Fed scores as seasonally adjusted changes of $(24)bn and $(5)bn. Weekly

data points can bounce around and are frequently re-stated - that said as shown below