HCIT: From AI Anxiety to Earnings Reality: HCIT's Next Test Is Execution; 2Q26 Earnings Preview

Research evidence excerpt

HCIT: From AI Anxiety to Earnings Reality: HCIT's Next Test Is Execution; 2Q26 Earnings Preview

er, we like the setup

✓ Earnings Preview best for ASTH, as several headwinds embedded in its 2026 framework appear

✓ Adjusting Estimates increasingly conservative. Medicare utilization remains stable, Medicaid adverse

selection has been less severe than feared, HIX attrition is tracking favorably, and

Prospect medical-cost performance continues to improve, creating a favorable setup

for another clean quarter and increased confidence in the durability of the earnings

outlook.

• For HNGE, PGNY, and PRVA, investor expectations already call for clean prints

accompanied by modest beat-and-raise quarters. For HNGE and PGNY, share price

performance is likely to be driven by any incremental commentary around the 2027

selling season.

• For WAY, investor expectations are low, and investors appear to be bracing for

a potential guidance cut. While we believe such an outcome is highly unlikely,

we expect 2Q results to be broadly in line with expectations and guidance to be

reiterated. Even in that scenario, the quarter may not represent a meaningful step

toward a positive rerating given all the noise around AI-disruption and the competitive

landscape. Instead, we view the August 25 Investor Day as the more significant near-

term catalyst.

• Among our Hold-rated names, HIMS could see some short-term strength once

the focus shifts beyond the PCAC meeting and toward the company's 2Q

earnings report.

Exposure to Utilization Volatility - What's In the Stock, and What's Not. HCA

(Buy, MacDonald), UNH (Buy, MacDonald), and ELV (Buy, MacDonald) have provided

some updates around utilization trends in 2Q26, which are important read-throughs to

consider for our coverage.