CASEY'S GENERAL STORES (+) : Pizza. Wings. Zyn. Gas. Repeat.

Research evidence excerpt

CASEY'S GENERAL STORES (+) : Pizza. Wings. Zyn. Gas. Repeat.

Refinitiv

Investment summary

Key issues/debates

Can Casey’s sustain positive momentum within Prepare Foods amidst an increasingly

competitive QSR backdrop? Will M&A remain a value creation engine or unsustainable

roll-up? Durability of fuel profitability? How should shares be valued?

Recent stock performance

CASY shares are +66% YTD, versus the S&P 500’s +6%. CASY’s closest publicly traded

peers Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN), Murphys USA (MUSA), and 7&i (7-Eleven,

3382 JT Equity) are +11%, +52%, and -14%, respectively. CASY outperformed the S&P

in 2025 returning +39% vs. the S&P 500’s +16% return.

BNPP Investment Thesis

We reiterate our Outperform rating and our 12-month price target goes to $1,032 from

$962 (13% upside). Casey’s is building the best food engine in C-store retail. The model

offers both defensive and offensive characteristics, and a rural focus drives superior unit

economics. This is a high-quality compounder with runway to grow units and acquire at

a low cost of capital which screens attractive to us in this macro tape. While valuation

doesn’t screen cheap, we think a premium is warranted given its focus on high-margin

prepared foods, strong visibility into go-forward EPS power (~18% CAGR through ’28E),

higher ROIC, and strong management team.

BNPP estimates versus Consensus

Our revised FY27E and FY28E EPS estimates of $22.13 and $24.38 are 6.5% and 7.7%

above Consensus, respectively.

BNPP Valuation methodology

We arrive at our $1,032 Price Target (was $962) by applying a 33.0x (was 31.5x)

EV/EBIT multiple to our FY28E EBIT of $1,283.0m (was $1,254.0m), implying a 45.0x

P/E on our 2028E EPS of $24.38, discounted back. A 45.0x P/E multiple is a 2% premium