Casey's General Stores Inc: Store growth supports strong EBITDA growth through F29

Research evidence excerpt

Casey's General Stores Inc: Store growth supports strong EBITDA growth through F29

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Casey's General Stores Inc

Store growth supports strong EBITDA

growth through F29

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 975.00 USD | Price: 792.97 USD

Fine-tuning estimates post CASY’s analyst day 02 July 2026

Casey’s (CASY) management team held an analyst day on June 24 in which they Equity

introduced a new three-year plan. See Executing at scale with a differentiated and

resilient platform. While mgmt guidance was largely in line with expectations, we have

Key Changesscrubbed our model and as a result have adjusted our estimates modestly.

(US$) Previous Current

Highlights of our model update 2027E Rev (m) 20,534.2 20,772.0

We raise our FY27 EPS est to $21.66 from $21.01, above Visible Alpha consensus of 2028E Rev (m) 21,610.7 20,635.5

$21.05 and Bloomberg of $21.42. For FY28, we lower our EPS forecast to $24.00 from 2029E Rev (m) 22,682.4 21,379.5

$24.85. Our updated outlook reflects greater confidence in long-term unit growth, with 2027E EPS 21.01 21.66

408 stores projected by FY29, versus our prior forecast of 346 stores, and in line with 2028E EPS 24.85 24.00

mgmt’s target of “at least 400 stores”. We forecast 9.6% EBITDA CAGR from FY27–29, 2029E EPS 28.87 26.46

at the high end of mgmt’s 8–10% annual growth target. Mgmt expects +2–5% inside

same-store sales (SSS) growth in FY27 and a mid-single-digit increase over the 3-year Lisa K. Lewandowski

period; we model 3.3% growth in FY27 and 3.1% annual growth through FY29, driven by ResearchBofAS Analyst

+2.5% growth in grocery/general merchandise SSS and 4.8% growth in prepared food/ +1 646 855 4647

lisa.lewandowski@bofa.com

dispensed beverages. CASY has guided to an inside margin >42% in FY27. We forecast

Peter T. Galbo, CFA