Proven Algorithm & Still Compounding with Clear Visibility; Wings Another Oppty

Research evidence excerpt

Proven Algorithm & Still Compounding with Clear Visibility; Wings Another Oppty

USA | Convenience Retail

Casey’s General Stores EquityJuneResearch24, 2026

ESTIMATE CHANGEProven Algorithm & Still Compounding with

RATING BUYClear Visibility; Wings Another Oppty

PRICE $831.89^

We met with CASY's mgmt at their Investor Day in New York, where the

discussion centered on the next 3-year plan, reinforcing CASY’s position as PRICE TARGET | % TO PT $1,040.00 | +25%

a “convenience QSR” with a proven compounding growth algorithm. Mgmt 52W HIGH-LOW $927.85 - $490.00

emphasized continuity, with a focus on amplifying structural advantages FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD) 98.9% | 500.62

(prepared food, rural footprint, vertical integration) that have already driven MARKET CAP $30.9B

industry-leading results. We also remain excited about the opportunity in wings. TICKER CASY ^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise

noted.

A Proven Algorithm. CASY highlighted their strong track record after delivering a 16% EBITDA

CAGR over the last 3YRs (vs. the 8-10% target), alongside 504 store additions (vs 350+ store

FY (Apr) CHANGE TO JEFe JEF vs CONS

target), +230bps margin expansion, and $1.7B in FCF (vs ~$1.25B target). The next plan calls for

2027 2028 2027 2028

a continued 8-10% EBITDA CAGR, driven by a balanced mix of unit growth (400+ stores), MSD%

inside SSS, and continued OpEx leverage. REV NA NA NA NA

EPS NA <1% -2% -2%

Our Take: This mgmt team has established credibility (as evidenced by the multiple & strong results),

execution history de-risks guidance, supporting continued premium multiple positioning ahead. 2027 ($) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

EPS -- -- -- -- 20.95

“Convenience QSR” Flywheel. Mgmt reiterated the differentiated 3-legged model (food, grocery/ PREV