Running It Back... Thoughts Post Investor Day... 

Research evidence excerpt

Running It Back... Thoughts Post Investor Day...

Consumer

Food Retailers - Market Overweight

CASEY'S GENERAL STORES, INC. (CASY) June 26, 2026

Running It Back... Thoughts Post Investor Day... Rating:

Outperform

The Wolfe Byte Price: $784.71

Casey's 2026 Investor Day highlighted the consistency of the operating model Price Target:

and the team kept their EBITDA growth targets for F'27-29 in-line with the prior $1,069

plan. They did step up their CPG assumptions to the mid-40c level as the industry % Upside:

36.2%remains disciplined here.

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From a store growth standpoint, the team expects to add 400 new stores over Company Information

the next 3 years, which is slower than the 504 they added over the prior mid- 52-Week Range $495 - $916

term outlook period. CASY remains disciplined in their strategy as they continue to Market Cap. (MM) $29,038

consolidate the still fragmented c-store industry while also ramping their best in Enterprise Value (MM) $31,637

Shares Out. (MM) 37.0

class food program. We do think there is some conservatism baked into the targets Avg. Value Traded (MM) $716.86

with the team setting up the business for a beat & raise. SI% of Float 3.8%

New 3-Yr Targets Mostly In-Line; FCF/CPG Higher While Store Growth Lower.

900Management is guiding to an 8-10% EBITDA CAGR, again defined as top quintile

growth across S&P 500 and 400 retail and restaurants. They expect at least 400 new 850800

units, a roughly 4% CAGR, split about evenly between new builds and acquisitions, 750700

with no large deals assumed in that number (leaving room for upside). Inside same 650600

store sales should grow +MSD with modest margin expansion, same store gallons 550500

roughly flat, and fuel margin in the mid 40s cents per gallon growing (vs.