CASY: Major leagues: 3-year plan to F29 looks achievable, PT to $850 (+7%)

Research evidence excerpt

CASY: Major leagues: 3-year plan to F29 looks achievable, PT to $850 (+7%)

Casey's General Stores, Inc.

Target/Upside/Downside Scenarios Investment summary

Despite a challenging macro backdrop for consumerCasey's General Stores, Inc.

spending, Casey's F27-29 strategic plan reinforces the

1,100 125 Weeks 01FEB24 - 24JUN26 durability of a business model that has consistently delivered

1,000 above its own targets. CASY positioning as "Convenience QSR"

TARGETTARGET 850.00850.00

800 CURRENTCURRENT 801.35801.35 is a category of one and gaining share from both pressured

700 QSR operators and structurally challenged traditional c-stores.

600 Top-line growth ahead of industry norms should be supported

400 by a widening value gap vs. QSR, a growing prepared food

300 pipeline anchored by the chain-wide wings rollout, and

200 400+ new units over F27-29 funded entirely organically.

15m The Fikes integration is progressing well, with converted

10m

5m stores exceeding expectations and the experience expanding

2024 2025 2026 F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J Casey's operational toolkit, notably a transitional third-

CASY US Rel. S&P 500 COMPOSITE MA 40 weeks party distribution capability that broadens addressable M&A

Source: Bloomberg and RBC Capital Markets estimates for Target whitespace beyond the current DC radius. Improvements over

Valuation the past 6 years in how CASY goes to market, including

Our price target of $850 is the average generated by applying a vertically integrated fuel supply chain and proprietary

a 34x P/E multiple and a 17.5x EBITDA multiple to mid- products now representing 40% of inside gross profit, are

F29E (October 2028). Our target multiples are consistent with driving consistent, ratable results with structural margin