PGR: Slowing PIF Drive; Model Update Post April Results

Research evidence excerpt

PGR: Slowing PIF Drive; Model Update Post April Results

Equity Research

Price Target Change — May 20, 2026

Personal Lines Insurance

The Progressive Corporation

Slowing PIF Drive; Model Update Post April Results Equal Weight

Price Target: $222.00

Notable Changes

Our Call $ (Dec) Current Prior % Chg

PGR shares were unchanged, as the print was mixed with slower PIF growth, offset Price Target $222.00 $218.00 1.8%

by better-than-expected underlying margin. We still see the tough growth backdrop EPS 2026 15.85 15.30 3.6%

persisting, which should limit any re-rating in shares. Remain Equal Weight. EPS 2027 14.70 14.45 1.8%

Rev. (MM) 2026 91.49B 91.66B -0.2%

The stock from here: We still see PGR continuing to have strong margins and better Rev. (MM) 2027 97.68B 98.17B -0.5%

growth than most (albeit slowing vs DD growth in recent years); however, the competitive

backdrop remains elevated and muted rate should continue to pressure margins, which Ticker PGR

should limit a re-rating in the stock (our EPS estimates are also 9% below Street in 2027 /

Upside/(Downside) to Target 9.6%2028). Favorable PYD and buybacks to remain a positive, but hard to see shares working

until growth reaccelerates (possibly from push into Robinsons). Price (05/20/2026) $202.60

52 Week Range $191.75 - 289.96

EPS estimates up modestly for forward years / price target higher: Our 2026E, 2027E, Market Cap (MM) $118,906

and 2028E EPS estimates go up to $15.85, $14.70, and $14.50 (from $15.30, $14.45 Enterprise Value (MM) $127,167

and $14.15), reflecting underlying margin adjustments in personal auto, partially offset Average Daily Value (MM) $577

lower NII / premium growth. Our price target goes to $222 (from $218) based on a 15.1x Dividend Yield 0.2%