PGR April 2026: Accelerating Buybacks and Decelerating Auto PIF

Research evidence excerpt

PGR April 2026: Accelerating Buybacks and Decelerating Auto PIF

Nonlife Insurance

Personal Lines - Market Weight

PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION (PGR) May 20, 2026

PGR April 2026: Accelerating Buybacks and Decelerating Rating:

Auto PIF Peer Perform

Price:

$203.73

The Wolfe Byte Price Target:

PGR's auto pricing may be firmer this year given the specter of rising tariffs (per the NA

10Q) driving weaker m/m PIF growth and underlying loss ratio improvement m/m View PGR Model

View Comp Tableand y/y; albeit PGR is still over-earning. With excess capital and slower growth,

buybacks remain elevated. Company Information

52-Week Range $193 - $289

Market Cap. (MM) $118,544

Underlying loss ratio improved by 310bps m/m and 100bps y/y. While PGR filed Enterprise Value (MM) $127,271

slightly more competitive rate decreases in April (–0.6% vs. industry –0.1% see exhibit Shares Out. (MM) 584.3

Avg. Value Traded (MM) $490.28

5), we do not see this as enough to pressure margins. Per the 10-Q, while PGR SI% of Float 1.2%

believes personal and commercial auto remain adequately priced in most states, the Dividend Yield 0.2%

specter of rising tariffs and retaliatory actions may support a firmer pricing stance into Price Performance

2026. YTD LTM

PGR (4)% (29)%

Based on our proxy review, PGR's LTI is measured on premium growth relative to the SPX 7% 24%

industry (only auto, not homeowners') as long as its combined ratio <96%. We think WRPI (1)% (18)%

this incentivizes persistent premium growth in 2026/2027 as current combined ratios 300

are well below 96% (i.e. April's combined ratio was 90.2% despite elevated cats). We 280

may just not see it as much on the PIF side, but rather the average premium per policy 260

side to contend with slowing personal auto NPW growth (7.0% in April vs. 11.2% in 240