分布式电力更新

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Equity Research

U.S. Energy Services & Technology

20 August 2026

U.S. Energy Services

Distributed Power Update

Over the past 12 months the distributed power industry has

doubled capacity, while the pace of contracts has slowed,

pulling down stocks. Demand for BTM is robust, we don't see

oversupply, but hyperscalers have leverage and can wait.

Meanwhile OEM capacity is showing few additions.

Distributed Power has come a long way over the past year and we expect the industry to further

transform over the next 12 months, as the larger, established players separate from the pack.

Since our last update (March), the industry has more than doubled from 16 GW to more than

36 GW of capacity targets. No longer considered a temporary bridge, Distributed Power is now

part of the speed-to-power solution, but not all capacity is the same. On one side are the early

movers with long-term contracts in hand, proven execution managing capacity loads and are

expanding the scope with balance of plant. On the other side are companies with capacity on

order but without any contracts, having essentially built MWs on spec, expecting hyperscalers to

be desperately short power. While we continue to see an enormous power shortfall over the

next 5 years, the contract cadence has been very slow the past 6 months as hyperscalers have

proven to be exceedingly patient. In turn, with more capacity and few contracts, the Distributed

Power trade has taken a leg down (-31% since May 15th) on fears of an overbuild. However,

despite the lack of datapoints, our conversations continue to point to strong demand from

hyperscalers. While location is increasingly important, we haven't seen any project delays,

rather many of these projects are being upsized, more computing power concentrated into a

single location. This favors the established players, the ones who have proven execution and

contracts in hand...as its much easier to negotiate the 2nd long term contract. Among the

publicly traded players, Solaris Energy Infrastructure (OW, $90 PT) stands out, managing

~1GW currently with more than 2/3 of its 3.2GW of capacity under long terms contract,

which we value at $45/sh.

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