REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Soft Warning On 2026 Traffic/EBITDA - Consensus Already There: Groupe ADP | Europe
Key takeaways
- ADP updated its FY26 traffic and EBITDA guidance yesterday after market (15 October) post a soft September traffic print - Now aligning with co-co-co/MSe.
- FY26 traffic now seen slightly down YoY vs.
- +0.5% prior (MSe -0.5% / co-co-co +0.1%), reflecting a soft September + 4Q26 airlines seat capacity outlook.
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Research evidence excerpt
Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+
Groupe ADP (ADP.PA, ADP FP)
ADP updated its FY26 traffic and EBITDA guidance yesterday after market (15 October) post a soft September traffic print - Now aligning with co-co-co/MSe.
FY26 traffic now seen slightly down YoY vs. +0.5% prior (MSe -0.5% / co-co-co +0.1%), reflecting a soft September + 4Q26 airlines seat capacity outlook.
FY26 EBITDA now seen at the lower end of the €2,300-2,350m range (co-co-co €2,301m / MSe €2,304m exc. €40m TEITLD charge) = In line.
- = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP Confirmation that FY26 is a transition year, with all eyes on the regulatory process (ART's decision due 18-Nov-26).
ADP offers the best opportunity at transformation as pivot into 2027e: #1 a new LT regulation; #2 traffic & retail rebound; #3 stronger earnings power. OW.
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