REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Risk Reward Update
Key takeaways
- Risk Reward for Mirvac Group (MGR.AX) has been updated Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare ** = Based on consensus methodology e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates We update our MGR
- In summary, we expect residential pre-sales momentum to decline in the Sep/Dec '26 quarters (relative to 2H26), before recovering into 2027 as the rate outlook peaks.
- We now factor in 2,850 settlements in FY27 (was 2,950) and 2,400 in FY28 (was 2,750), with the revision driven by masterplanned communities rather than apartments.
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Research evidence excerpt
Risk Reward for Mirvac Group (MGR.AX) has been updated Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare ** = Based on consensus methodology e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates We update our MGR forecasts to reflect more conservative residential assumptions in the near term, consistent with our approach for Stockland. In summary, we expect residential pre-sales momentum to decline in the Sep/Dec '26 quarters (relative to 2H26), before recovering into 2027 as the rate outlook peaks.
We now factor in 2,850 settlements in FY27 (was 2,950) and 2,400 in FY28 (was 2,750), with the revision driven by masterplanned communities rather than apartments. This implicitly assumes that sales volumes over the next 12 months are 25% lower (on average) vs. MGR's peak sales rate in 2Q26.
We also factor in MGR's spend on its buyback program (c.A$145m to date), which has largely offset any impact of higher floating debt rates for FY27.
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