REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Top Stories: GEMS FIRST TO MARKET
Key takeaways
- This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China.
- This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P.
- EM Money Trail (Rajiv Batra/Emy Shayo Cherman/Anindita Gandhi), Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa,
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Research evidence excerpt
This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan.
EM Money Trail (Rajiv Batra/Emy Shayo Cherman/Anindita Gandhi), Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Arab Emirates Passive-led recovery lifts Asia; strong buying in LatAm continues EM equity funds flows bounced back to +$2.8bn after small inflows last week (+$107mn). Prior to that, total flows had been negative for three weeks. This week’s recovery, however, was led entirely by passive funds that saw inflows accelerate to + $3.7bn from +$1.4bn last week. Active funds extended outflows to the sixth week, though narrowing at the margin (-$920mn, $1.3bn last week). Among regional funds, LatAm continued to record very strong inflows (+$1.7bn, +$1.5bn last week), the highest since April. Broader GEM funds saw small inflows of +$378mn, of which +$101mn was via active funds. Notably, Asia ex-Japan flows turned positive (+$551mn) after nine weeks of sell-off (-$8.8bn total), albeit the recovery was entirely from passive flows. EMEA also turned positive (+$114mn) after six weeks of outflows. EM ex-China funds saw strong inflows of + $464mn this week. YTD, EM equity funds are at +$71.5bn (passive: +$94.0bn; active: -$22.6bn).
TSMC (Gokul Hariharan) (2330 TT, OW, PT NT$3300.0), Taiwan
Faster capacity ramp, flattish GMs; stay OW We believe TSMC is now likely to expand capacity at an accelerated pace into 2028, given the widening demand-supply gap in leading edge wafers and strong AI demand. Given the additional new N3 Fab builds (4 phases in 2027-28), steep N2 ramp and pull-in for A14 ramp (likely targeting at least some iPhone in 2H28), we believe that capex is likely to grow to $90/109bn in 2027/28.…
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