US Construction Data Points: Cement Prices Flat m/m in Sep (Miss vs. +0.1% est.); Aggs Remain Resilient, RM Stable

Research evidence excerpt

Cement Prices Flat m/m in Sep (Miss vs. +0.1% est.);

Aggs Remain Resilient, RM Stable

Cement prices were flat m/m (-1.2% y/y) in Sep, below our expectation of +0.1% m/m. The September data close out another weak quarter for cement pricing, with prices down -0.5% q/q in 3Q and remaining firmly negative on a y/y basis. YTD, cement prices are down -0.7%, underscoring the continued lack of pricing traction despite gradually improving underlying demand conditions.

Ahead of 3Q results, we continue to see healthy activity across infrastructure, data centers, energy and other heavy non-residential projects, but residential remains weak and competitive pressures as well as cement imports continue to weigh on pricing in certain markets. Our latest sector work points to subdued cement pricing in the US, with limited realization likely to combine with higher energy costs to pressure margins through 2H26. Looking ahead, we continue to expect only modest improvement in cement pricing, with a more meaningful recovery dependent on stronger demand and better price realization into 2027.

J.P. Morgan Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V., J.P.

Aggs prices increased +0.2% m/m (+6.3% y/y) in Sep, below our expectation of +0.4% m/m and following Aug’s +0.1% m/m increase. Despite the softerthan-expected monthly result, aggregates continue to demonstrate significantly greater pricing resilience than cement, with y/y growth accelerating slightly from +6.2% in August and YTD pricing gains reaching +5.8%. For 3Q, aggs prices increased +1.2% q/q and +6.2% y/y, although our latest sector preview points to weaker-than-expected realization from mid-year price increases across several producers. At the same time, underlying demand remains supported by infrastructure and select non-residential end markets, particularly data centers and