Met Coal > Iron Ore: metal&ROCK | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Idea

August 18, 2026 04:30 PM GMT

metal&ROCK | Europe

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

Commodities Strategist

Met Coal > Iron Ore

Ben Kelson

Research Associate

Our bearish iron ore view is playing out, with further downside

ahead from China steel cuts and rising supply. We prefer met

coal with Chinese supply curbs and seasonally stronger Indian

demand ahead. However, rising shipments from Australia and

Mongolia may cap upside.

Martijn Rats, CFA

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

Exhibit 1 : China's steel production continues

to decline YoY, increasingly being driven by

cuts to pig iron output which is down 2.1%

Key Takeaways

Iron ore has further downside into Q4 as supply growth accelerates against

YTD, weighing on iron ore and met coal

consumption

declining steel output in China.

85

Rising freight rates and CMRG actions may bring near term volatility though.

80

Met coal has further upside as China's mine inspections weigh on domestic

2020-2024 Range

2025

2026

2020-2024 Average

75

output and support imports, while India should return to the seaborne market in

70

Q4.

65

However, seaborne met coal prices may be capped, with Australian supply

60

growth 2H weighted and Mongolia meeting a growing share of China's import

China Pig Iron Production (mln tonnes/month)

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Source: NBS, Morgan Stanley Research

demand.

Iron ore weakness likely to continue: Our iron ore bear thesis is playing out, with

the price now at $96/t with positioning swinging to net short. Weaker Chinese steel

demand and rising seaborne supply are increasingly outweighing factors that

supported prices in 1H. Lower steel production forecasts, deteriorating mill margins

and rising inventories point to softer hot metal output through 2H, while stronger

Australian shipments and ramping Simandou exports should push the market into a

more visible surplus - we see iron ore at US$92/t by Q4.

While met coal has scope to keep rising: After a weak July, met coal prices appear

to be finding a floor around $220/t. We see scope for prices to recover toward our

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