Risk Reward Update: BHP Group Ltd | Asia Pacific

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M

Update

August 18, 2026 03:32 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

BHP Group Ltd | Asia Pacific

Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

BHP Group Ltd (BHP.AX)

From

To

Price Target

A$67.00

A$68.00

Bull Case

A$95.10

A$96.80

Base Case

A$56.65

A$57.45

Bear Case

A$45.80

A$46.60

Updated Components

EPS

Risk Reward for BHP Group Ltd (BHP.AX) has been updated

BHP Group Ltd (BHP.AX, BHP AU)

ADSBHPB.L

Australia Materials | Australia

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 18, 2026)

52-Week Range

Reason for change

Fiscal Year Ending

Model and valuation changes: We have updated our model following BHP’s FY26

EPS (US$)**

Prior EPS (US$)**

financial result, incorporating FY26 actuals and FY27 cost guidance. FY26 EPS rises

1.4% to US$2.59, while FY27e EPS is unchanged at US$2.55 and FY28e EPS rises

0.9% to US$2.52. We also introduce our FY29 estimates. Our bull-, base- and bear-

Overweight

Attractive

A$68.00

A$63.85

A$65.98-39.30

06/26 06/27e 06/28e 06/29e

2.59

2.56

2.55

2.52

2.49

2.76

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

case valuations rise 1.8%, 1.4% and 1.7% to A$96.80, A$57.45 and A$46.60,

respectively, driven by lower revisions to our medium-term cost estimates at

Escondida. Overall, our probability-weighted price target increases 1.5% to A$68.00.

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