Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

August 18, 2026 04:19 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

BHP Group Ltd | Asia Pacific

Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

BHP Group Ltd (BHPB.L)

From

To

Price Target

3,479p

3,568p

Bull Case

4,938p

5,079p

Base Case

2,942p

3,014p

Bear Case

2,378p

2,445p

Risk Reward for BHP Group Ltd (BHPB.L) has been updated

Reason for change

Model and valuation changes: We have updated our model following BHP’s FY26

financial result, incorporating FY26 actuals and FY27 cost guidance. FY26 EPS rises

1.4% to US$2.59, while FY27e EPS is unchanged at US$2.55 and FY28e EPS rises

0.9% to US$2.52. We also introduce our FY29 estimates. Our bull-, base/bear case

valuations rise 2.9%, 2.4% and 2.8% to 5,079p, 3,014p and 2,445p, respectively,

BHP Group Ltd (BHPB.L, BHP LN)

Australia Materials | Australia

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 18, 2026)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (US$)**

Prior EPS (US$)**

Overweight

Attractive

3,568p

3,267p

3,495-1,918p

06/26 06/27e 06/28e 06/29e

2.59

2.55

2.52

2.76

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

primarily driven by revisions lower to our medium-term cost estimates at Escondida.

Overall, our probability-weighted price target increases 2.6% to 3,568p. Our BHPB.L

price target is derived by converting our Australian price target using AUD/USD of

0.711 and GBP/USD of 1.354.

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