Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

August 18, 2026 03:32 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+

BHP Group Ltd | Asia Pacific

Rahul Anand, CFA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

BHP Group Ltd (BHGJ.J)

From

To

Price Target

ZAc 75,715

ZAc 78,376

Bull Case

ZAc 107,470

ZAc 111,571

Base Case

ZAc 64,018

ZAc 66,216

Bear Case

ZAc 51,757

ZAc 53,711

Updated Components

EPS

Risk Reward for BHP Group Ltd (BHGJ.J) has been updated

Reason for change

Model and valuation changes: We have updated our model following BHP’s FY26

financial result, incorporating FY26 actuals and FY27 cost guidance. FY26 EPS rises

1.4% to US$2.59, while FY27e EPS is unchanged at US$2.55 and FY28e EPS rises

BHP Group Ltd (BHGJ.J, BHG SJ)

Australia Materials | Australia

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 17, 2026)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS (US$)**

Prior EPS (US$)**

Overweight

Attractive

ZAc 78,376

ZAc 71,351

ZAc 75,940- 44,595

06/26 06/27e 06/28e 06/29e

2.59

2.56

2.55

2.52

2.49

2.76

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

0.9% to US$2.52. We also introduce our FY29 estimates. Our bull-, base- and bearcase valuations rise 3.8%, 3.4% and 3.8% to ZAc111,571, ZAc66,216 and ZAc53,711,

respectively, driven primarily by lower revisions to our medium-term cost estimates

at Escondida. Overall, our probability-weighted price target increases 3.5% to

ZAc78,376. Our BHGJ.J price target is derived by converting our Australian price

target using AUD/USD of 0.711 and USD/ZAR of 16.220.

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