REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Energy Shock Monitor
Research evidence excerpt
J P M O R G A N
Global Economic Research
14 August 2026
Energy Shock Monitor
Here's how we’re reading the latest activity and price data:
Economic and Policy Research
Global tanker imports recovered to their 2025 levels in the month through
August 7th. Imports in the US, Asia ex China, and Latam remain elevated on
an %oya basis. China imports have also risen, but remain well below preconflict levels. Europe is the standout underperformer, with imports remaining
at a post-conflict low. The recovery likely reflects the temporary Hormuz
reopening in late June/early July. With flows now down and prices back up, it’s
unclear how long this recovery can be sustained.
Nora Szentivanyi
US gasoline and diesel inventories continue to decline, with the former at its
lowest post-conflict level. Euro area natural gas inventories are
increasingly underperforming last year’s levels.
Artem Fakhretdinov
After correctly signaling the weakness in today’s July retail sales report, an
early tracking estimate of August nominal US spending suggests a modest
gain this month, per our Chase Card Trackers.
Petro-based prices reaccelerated this week, with diesel approaching peak
demand season. Brent crude (+4%) and TTF (+10%) rose but remain below the
July peaks. Jet fuel and retail gasoline prices remain near their recent highs.
Please note that this week’s Monitor does not include an update of the global
or economy-level flights data.
Global* tanker imports
Petro-based product prices
Million metric tons, nsa; 28-day mov. avg.
Index, Feb 26, 2026= 100
Jet
200
fuel
10.5
2024
10.0
(44-20) 7134-7544
J.P. Morgan Securities plc
Maia Crook
(1-212) 622-8435
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
(1-212) 272-1839
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Natural gas
Europe (TTF)
175
2025
150
9.5
9.0
125
2026
8.5
100
Conflict
US gasoline
pump price
75
8.0
Brent crude
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan
Source: IMF Portwatch, JPM. *Agg of GDW and EM Edge.
Activity tracking
Global*
United States
Latam
Daily flight numbers, %
change from March 1 thru
August 4
2023-25 avg
2026
17.0
11.0
13.0
8.0
10.0
0.0
Asia/Pacific
5.0
Japan
12.0
China
Europe
Euro area
MEA
EM Edge ex GCC
…
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