GDS Holdings: Revised up 2026 booking target to 1GW; strong outlook at least until 2028, as per management

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 August 2026

GDS Holdings

Revised up 2026 booking target to 1GW; strong outlook

at least until 2028, as per management

Significant new order wins; booking estimate revised up for 2026: GDS

raised its FY26 booking target to 1GW, from prior guidance of 500MW, driven

by demand from its three largest hyperscale customers (77% of 1H26 bookings

from the top 3 customers), along with some new demand upside from

engagement with emerging AI customers. In addition, GDS has secured

600MW of reservations YTD and expects to secure 1GW+ of new reservations,

providing high visibility on order conversion over the next couple of years

(100% exercise rate over the past 1-1.5 years). Management also noted that

strong demand is being driven by an on-track domestic GPU ramp and healthy

new orders for CPUs, and appeared positive on the future chip supply situation.

Overall, given the stronger booking momentum and rising backlog (1H

backlog reached 757MW and should increase further to 1GW+ by end of 2026;

each MW can generate ~RMB2.2mn of EBITDA annually, as per

management), GDS raised its 2026 capex guidance to RMB10bn, from

RMB9bn.

Expects move-ins to more than double in 2027, with further growth in

2028: Given strong booking momentum in 2026, GDS now expects 2027

move-ins to more than double versus 2026, with the more meaningful uptick

weighted toward 2H27, and it anticipates another step-up in 2028, which

should drive significant EBITDA growth in the next few years. On workload

mix, management indicated that move-ins are currently split roughly 50/50

between CPU-based and GPU-based capacity, with the GPU proportion likely

to be slightly higher in 2027 as domestic GPU supply catches up.

Monthly Service Revenue (MSR) expected to decline over next 18 months,

though gross profit yield remains at 10–11%: While Tier-1 and new-market

pricing levels are stable, GDS reported a 6% YoY decline in MSR in 2Q26 and

expects a ~3% YoY decline in 4Q26, with a similar magnitude of decline

anticipated next year. Management expects the MSR downtrend to continue for

another 18 months, driven by ongoing pricing adjustments on legacy contracts.

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