能源冲击监测

研报英文原文证据摘录

J P M O R G A N

Global Economic Research

14 August 2026

Energy Shock Monitor

Here's how we’re reading the latest activity and price data:

Economic and Policy Research

Global tanker imports recovered to their 2025 levels in the month through

August 7th. Imports in the US, Asia ex China, and Latam remain elevated on

an %oya basis. China imports have also risen, but remain well below preconflict levels. Europe is the standout underperformer, with imports remaining

at a post-conflict low. The recovery likely reflects the temporary Hormuz

reopening in late June/early July. With flows now down and prices back up, it’s

unclear how long this recovery can be sustained.

Nora Szentivanyi

US gasoline and diesel inventories continue to decline, with the former at its

lowest post-conflict level. Euro area natural gas inventories are

increasingly underperforming last year’s levels.

Artem Fakhretdinov

After correctly signaling the weakness in today’s July retail sales report, an

early tracking estimate of August nominal US spending suggests a modest

gain this month, per our Chase Card Trackers.

Petro-based prices reaccelerated this week, with diesel approaching peak

demand season. Brent crude (+4%) and TTF (+10%) rose but remain below the

July peaks. Jet fuel and retail gasoline prices remain near their recent highs.

Please note that this week’s Monitor does not include an update of the global

or economy-level flights data.

Global* tanker imports

Petro-based product prices

Million metric tons, nsa; 28-day mov. avg.

Index, Feb 26, 2026= 100

Jet

200

fuel

10.5

2024

10.0

(44-20) 7134-7544

J.P. Morgan Securities plc

Maia Crook

(1-212) 622-8435

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

(1-212) 272-1839

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Natural gas

Europe (TTF)

175

2025

150

9.5

9.0

125

2026

8.5

100

Conflict

US gasoline

pump price

75

8.0

Brent crude

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., J.P. Morgan

Source: IMF Portwatch, JPM. *Agg of GDW and EM Edge.

Activity tracking

Global*

United States

Latam

Daily flight numbers, %

change from March 1 thru

August 4

2023-25 avg

2026

17.0

11.0

13.0

8.0

10.0

0.0

Asia/Pacific

5.0

Japan

12.0

China

Europe

Euro area

MEA

EM Edge ex GCC

…