REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
J.P. Morgan Capex Nowcaster: 3Q tracking ticks down to 8.2%ar
Research evidence excerpt
Maia Crook (1-212) 622-8435
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735
Global Economic Research
JPMORGAN
14 August 2026
J.P. Morgan Capex
Nowcaster
%q/q, saar
12
3Q tracking ticks down to 8.2%ar
8
Nowcasting global capex by forecast week
3Q26
1Q26
2Q26
4Q25
10
6
Global
4
Global capex, actual and nowcaster
Week 1 coincides with the release of the
first PMI report of the quarter.
2
wk1
wk2
wk3
wk4
wk5
wk6
wk7
wk8
wk9
wk10
wk11
wk12
wk13
wk14
wk15
wk16
wk17
wk18
wk19
%chg saar. Actual thru 1Q26; Nowcast thru 3Q26.
20
Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics
Actual*
(%q/q)
10
Regional
DM capex, actual and nowcaster
%q/q, saar. Actual thru 1Q26; Nowcast through 3Q26.
0
20
Nowcaster
(Solid: %3m/3m; Dashed:%m/m)
-10
15
Actual
10
Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics. Details on request. *Global ex China.
5
0
Global capex nowcaster
%ch, saar. PMIs are levels.* Monthly are not annualized.
-5
Nowcaster
-10
2Q26
3Q26 Apr 26 May 26 Jun 26 Jul 26 Aug 26
Inv. goods PMI
Capital goods
exports
Capital goods IP
G-3 shipments
54.1
53.5
53.7
54.9
53.8
53.6
53.5
28.9
7.4
4.8
-0.6
1.4
0.3
0.7
8.9
8.5
6.1
5.2
1.3
0.9
0.3
-0.4
0.4
2.1
0.2
-0.2
1.0
0.3
%q/q, saar. Actual thru 1Q26; Nowcast through 3Q26.
Nowcast*
9.8
8.2
0.9
0.7
0.6
30
Source: J.P. Morgan, S&P Global, and national sources.Shaded values show forecasts computed by the Kalman filter projections from the dynamic factor model.
Underlined values indicate the tracking months estimated using bridge models.
20
Nowcast*
3Q26 Apr 26 May 26 Jun 26 Jul 26 Aug 26
...
+2.40
+0.91
+0.47
-0.36
+0.60
-0.06
...
-0.45
...
-1.21
-0.13
+0.04
...
+0.03
...
-0.48
...
+0.09
...
-0.09
-0.04
-0.02
-0.22
...
+0.01
-0.02
Global capital expenditures
Index, Dec 2019=100. Actual thru 1Q26. Dotted line is projection thru 3Q26.
140
130
120
Trend
110
Actual
100
90
80
70
Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics
40
Nowcaster
10
Actual
-10
2Q26
Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics
EM ex. China capex, actual and nowcaster
0
J.P. Morgan global capex aggregates: Change since last week
%-pt change ("..." if change less than or equal to 0.01%pt), PMI is pt-change.
Inv. goods PMI
Capital goods
exports
Capital goods IP
G-3 shipments
Source: J.P.…
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