摩根大通资本支出Nowcaster：第三季度追踪降至年化8.2%

研报英文原文证据摘录

Maia Crook (1-212) 622-8435

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735

Global Economic Research

JPMORGAN

14 August 2026

J.P. Morgan Capex

Nowcaster

%q/q, saar

12

3Q tracking ticks down to 8.2%ar

8

Nowcasting global capex by forecast week

3Q26

1Q26

2Q26

4Q25

10

6

Global

4

Global capex, actual and nowcaster

Week 1 coincides with the release of the

first PMI report of the quarter.

2

wk1

wk2

wk3

wk4

wk5

wk6

wk7

wk8

wk9

wk10

wk11

wk12

wk13

wk14

wk15

wk16

wk17

wk18

wk19

%chg saar. Actual thru 1Q26; Nowcast thru 3Q26.

20

Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics

Actual*

(%q/q)

10

Regional

DM capex, actual and nowcaster

%q/q, saar. Actual thru 1Q26; Nowcast through 3Q26.

0

20

Nowcaster

(Solid: %3m/3m; Dashed:%m/m)

-10

15

Actual

10

Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics. Details on request. *Global ex China.

5

0

Global capex nowcaster

%ch, saar. PMIs are levels.* Monthly are not annualized.

-5

Nowcaster

-10

2Q26

3Q26 Apr 26 May 26 Jun 26 Jul 26 Aug 26

Inv. goods PMI

Capital goods

exports

Capital goods IP

G-3 shipments

54.1

53.5

53.7

54.9

53.8

53.6

53.5

28.9

7.4

4.8

-0.6

1.4

0.3

0.7

8.9

8.5

6.1

5.2

1.3

0.9

0.3

-0.4

0.4

2.1

0.2

-0.2

1.0

0.3

%q/q, saar. Actual thru 1Q26; Nowcast through 3Q26.

Nowcast*

9.8

8.2

0.9

0.7

0.6

30

Source: J.P. Morgan, S&P Global, and national sources.Shaded values show forecasts computed by the Kalman filter projections from the dynamic factor model.

Underlined values indicate the tracking months estimated using bridge models.

20

Nowcast*

3Q26 Apr 26 May 26 Jun 26 Jul 26 Aug 26

...

+2.40

+0.91

+0.47

-0.36

+0.60

-0.06

...

-0.45

...

-1.21

-0.13

+0.04

...

+0.03

...

-0.48

...

+0.09

...

-0.09

-0.04

-0.02

-0.22

...

+0.01

-0.02

Global capital expenditures

Index, Dec 2019=100. Actual thru 1Q26. Dotted line is projection thru 3Q26.

140

130

120

Trend

110

Actual

100

90

80

70

Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics

40

Nowcaster

10

Actual

-10

2Q26

Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics

EM ex. China capex, actual and nowcaster

0

J.P. Morgan global capex aggregates: Change since last week

%-pt change ("..." if change less than or equal to 0.01%pt), PMI is pt-change.

Inv. goods PMI

Capital goods

exports

Capital goods IP

G-3 shipments

Source: J.P.…