REAL-TIME GLOBAL RESEARCH
Economic Activity Tracking
Research evidence excerpt
Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Alex Gallin (1-212) 270-5492
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Maia Crook (1-212) 622-8435
JPMorgan Chase Bank NA
Global Economic Research
JPMORGAN
07 August 2026
Economic Activity Tracking
GDP nowcaster and recession probabilities
See here for real-time snapshots and methodology reports.
Our nowcaster estimate of 2Q global GDP growth ticked up
to 2.7%ar, 0.4%-pt above our 2Q forecast (Table 2).
JPM forecast evolution, GDP and CPI
Table 2: Real GDP
Our tracking estimate for 2Q global real GDP was broadly
steady at 2.3%ar this week. Our forecast for 3Q growth rose
0.3%pt to 2.6%ar on revisions to the US and Euro area (Figure 1). Our 3Q26 core CPI forecast held at 2.8%ar (Fig. 2).
Figure 1: J.P. Morgan global GDP
% change saar; forecast by date made, black line shows potential growth
3.0
1Q27
4Q26
2.6
2Q26
2.2
1.8
Dec 24
3Q26
Mar 25
Jun 25
Sep 25
Dec 25
Mar 26
Jun 26
Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics
Figure 2: J.P. Morgan global core CPI forecast
%q/q, saar; forecast by date made
3.8
3.5
4Q26
3.2
2Q26
2.9
2.6
3Q26
2.3
2.0
Dec 24
1Q27
Mar 25
Jun 25
Sep 25
Dec 25
Mar 26
Jun 26
Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics
Table 1: Change in forecast revision indexes
%-pt revision to rolling year-ahead outlook over 13 weeks
GDP
Inflation
Global
0.2
0.0
DM
0.1
-0.2
US
0.1
-0.3
Euro area
0.1
-0.1
UK
0.5
-0.4
Japan
0.8
-0.1
EM
0.2
EM Asia
0.4
0.2
M. China
0.3
0.1
Korea
1.5
0.6
Taiwan
0.5
0.2
India
0.4
0.9
LatAm
0.2
0.3
Brazil
0.7
0.6
Mexico
0.7
-0.3
EM EMEA
-0.3
0.2
CE4
0.0
-0.2
Türkiye
-0.3
-0.5
South Africa
0.2
0.0
Core inflation
0.1
-0.1
0.3
-0.1
0.8
0.0
-0.2
-0.3
0.8
-0.2
0.1
0.3
0.7
-0.1
0.8
0.3
1.0
0.6
Policy rate
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.8
0.0
1.1
2.5
0.0
0.7
0.2
1.0
0.8
%q/q, saar. Underline indicates J.P. Morgan forecast.
2Q26
Global
Weighted Avg*
Developed*
US
EMU
UK
Canada
Japan
Emerging*
EM Asia*
China
Korea
Taiwan
Singapore
Latam*
Brazil
Mexico
Argentina
Chile
Colombia
Peru
EMEA EM*
Poland
Hungary
Czech Rep.
Romania
Russia
Türkiye
South Africa
3Q26
Actual/Fcst
Nowcast
Forecast
Nowcast
2.3
2.1
1.7
1.5
1.8
1.5
3.0
1.9
2.8
2.7
2.4
2.5
9.9
4.6
3.0
2.0
6.1
-1.5
1.2
2.5
2.8
4.2
1.6
1.5
3.4
2.2
4.0
0.0
2.7
3.6
2.7
3.0
2.2
…
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