DiDi Global Inc.: International loss risk is receding, but cash conversion still caps the re-rating

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 August 2026

Neutral

DiDi Global Inc.

International loss risk is receding, but cash

conversion still caps the re-rating

DIDIY, DIDIY US

Price (13 Aug 26): $3.91

▲ Price Target (Dec-26): $4.50

We maintain Neutral on DiDi and raise our Dec-26 price target

to US$4.5 from US$4.0, still applying an unchanged 20x 2027E grouplevel EPADS multiple. We maintain our forecast for full-year 2026

international adjusted EBITA loss close to RMB 12bn, and given

contained losses in DiDi’s international expansion, we revise up DiDi’s

2027 EBITA estimates. Three consecutive quarters without another

upward revision to that loss reduces the downside risk embedded in the

stock, in our view, but unclear international business cash conversion

and rising capital intensity still argue against a more positive rating.

• The market appears to be pricing DiDi mainly on the sharp

decline in current group profit; our analysis suggests that the more

important change is that the risk of further estimate cuts has

fallen. International adjusted EBITA loss held at RMB 2.885bn in

2Q26, taking the loss/GTV ratio to 6.6% from 7.7% in 1Q26. China

Mobility also held a 4.61% adjusted EBITA margin. These results

leave our 2026 estimates unchanged and support a higher multiple on

the same earnings base.

• The remaining constraint is increasingly cash generation and

long-term international monetization. Excluding the class-action

escrow, we estimate 1H26 operating cash outflow at about RMB

3.4bn, while short-term borrowings increased and property and

equipment rose. International platform sales also grew far more

slowly than GTV, reducing the implied take rate to 7.5% from

10.2% a year earlier. In our view, these two issues explain why lower

international loss risk supports re-rating potential but does not yet

justify capitalizing longer-dated international profit or moving to a

SOTP framework

Prior (Dec-26): $4.00

China

Head of China Equity Research and

Co-Head of Asia TMT Research

Alex Yao AC

(86 21) 6106 6505

SAC Registration Number: S1730523020001

Daniel Chen

(86-21) 6106 6205

SAC Registration Number: S1730521040001

Olivia Xu

(86-21) 6106 6138

…