Economic Activity Tracking

研报英文原文证据摘录

Joseph Lupton (1-212) 834-5735

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Alex Gallin (1-212) 270-5492

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Maia Crook (1-212) 622-8435

JPMorgan Chase Bank NA

Global Economic Research

JPMORGAN

07 August 2026

Economic Activity Tracking

GDP nowcaster and recession probabilities

See here for real-time snapshots and methodology reports.

Our nowcaster estimate of 2Q global GDP growth ticked up

to 2.7%ar, 0.4%-pt above our 2Q forecast (Table 2).

JPM forecast evolution, GDP and CPI

Table 2: Real GDP

Our tracking estimate for 2Q global real GDP was broadly

steady at 2.3%ar this week. Our forecast for 3Q growth rose

0.3%pt to 2.6%ar on revisions to the US and Euro area (Figure 1). Our 3Q26 core CPI forecast held at 2.8%ar (Fig. 2).

Figure 1: J.P. Morgan global GDP

% change saar; forecast by date made, black line shows potential growth

3.0

1Q27

4Q26

2.6

2Q26

2.2

1.8

Dec 24

3Q26

Mar 25

Jun 25

Sep 25

Dec 25

Mar 26

Jun 26

Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics

Figure 2: J.P. Morgan global core CPI forecast

%q/q, saar; forecast by date made

3.8

3.5

4Q26

3.2

2Q26

2.9

2.6

3Q26

2.3

2.0

Dec 24

1Q27

Mar 25

Jun 25

Sep 25

Dec 25

Mar 26

Jun 26

Source: J.P. Morgan Global Economics

Table 1: Change in forecast revision indexes

%-pt revision to rolling year-ahead outlook over 13 weeks

GDP

Inflation

Global

0.2

0.0

DM

0.1

-0.2

US

0.1

-0.3

Euro area

0.1

-0.1

UK

0.5

-0.4

Japan

0.8

-0.1

EM

0.2

EM Asia

0.4

0.2

M. China

0.3

0.1

Korea

1.5

0.6

Taiwan

0.5

0.2

India

0.4

0.9

LatAm

0.2

0.3

Brazil

0.7

0.6

Mexico

0.7

-0.3

EM EMEA

-0.3

0.2

CE4

0.0

-0.2

Türkiye

-0.3

-0.5

South Africa

0.2

0.0

Core inflation

0.1

-0.1

0.3

-0.1

0.8

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

0.8

-0.2

0.1

0.3

0.7

-0.1

0.8

0.3

1.0

0.6

Policy rate

0.2

0.1

0.3

0.0

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.8

0.0

1.1

2.5

0.0

0.7

0.2

1.0

0.8

%q/q, saar. Underline indicates J.P. Morgan forecast.

2Q26

Global

Weighted Avg*

Developed*

US

EMU

UK

Canada

Japan

Emerging*

EM Asia*

China

Korea

Taiwan

Singapore

Latam*

Brazil

Mexico

Argentina

Chile

Colombia

Peru

EMEA EM*

Poland

Hungary

Czech Rep.

Romania

Russia

Türkiye

South Africa

3Q26

Actual/Fcst

Nowcast

Forecast

Nowcast

2.3

2.1

1.7

1.5

1.8

1.5

3.0

1.9

2.8

2.7

2.4

2.5

9.9

4.6

3.0

2.0

6.1

-1.5

1.2

2.5

2.8

4.2

1.6

1.5

3.4

2.2

4.0

0.0

2.7

3.6

2.7

3.0

2.2

…