Global Data Watch: Asia: China‘s anticipated 2H recovery faces its first test

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Economic Research

15 August 2026

Global Data Watch: Asia

China's anticipated 2H recovery faces its first test

China: Anticipated 2H recovery faces its first test

The incoming data over the past week point to continued domestic demand

weakness and only a limited pickup in fiscal support. Both CPI and PPI softened

more than expected, reflecting weak consumer demand, renewed disinflationary

pressures, and subdued construction activity. While adverse weather likely

contributed to the softness, the broader message is that underlying demand

momentum remains lackluster. This is reinforced by the record drop in new loan

creation, with broad-based contractions across both household and corporate

borrowing. Combined with only modest acceleration in government bond issuance

quarter-to-date, this raises downside risks to our forecast for nearly 2%pts of

growth acceleration to 4.3%q/q saar in the current quarter.

The key mitigating factor remains the external sector. While headline import

growth has exceeded export growth in value terms, much of the import strength has

been price-driven, whereas export volumes have continued to outperform import

volumes in recent months, suggesting net exports could provide a slightly larger

lift to GDP growth. Sustained export momentum should support industrial

production. We expect July IP to rise a modest 0.1%m/m sa but this comes on the

back of June's 1% jump, returning the underlying trend to positive territory.

Meanwhile, retail sales likely remained mild (+0.2%m/m, sa) despite summer

tourism seasonality, and fixed asset investment (-9%oya) remains constrained by

lagging fiscal deployment and weather-related disruptions to construction activity.

Taken together, July data will provide the first test of our constructive 2H growth

outlook. While the recovery narrative remains intact, it is becoming increasingly

reliant on fiscal policy delivery. Without a more visible fiscal catch-up, export

resilience alone may not be sufficient to offset persistent weakness in domestic

demand.

Table 1: EM Asia data release

Date

Market

Data

Mon, 17-Aug

SG

NODX

TH

GDP

CN

IP

CN

FAI

CN

Retail sales

MY

CPI

Tue, 18-Aug

…