ArcelorMittal (MT.AS): Europe finally becomes a tailwind to the investment narrative

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ArcelorMittal (MT.AS): Europe finally becomes a tailwind to the investment narrative

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04 Aug 2026 00:00:00 ET │ 15 pages

ArcelorMittal (MT.AS)

Europe finally becomes a tailwind to the investment narrative

CITI'S TAKE

Raising our TP €75, as a confluence of regulatory tailwinds creates the

strongest investment narrative for European steel since the GFC. New TRQ

protections, CBAM implementation, and EU ETS changes are set to drive Buy

significant earnings and FCF growth across the sector. We see this thesis Short-Term View: Upside, expires 09-AUG-26

materializing now, evidenced by MT's rare counter-seasonal guidance for

Price (03 Aug 26 13:29) €61.76higher 3Q shipments. As the largest regional producer, MT is the primary

beneficiary of this structural shift. Our new target reflects a normalization Target price €75.00↑

to its 20-year average EV/EBITDA multiple, underpinned by a book value per from €67.00share that has more than doubled since 2020 due to aggressive buybacks.

Expected share price return 21.4%

TRQs leading to higher prices, the earnings growth narrative — With CBAM Expected dividend yield 1.0%

effective from 1st Jan, TRQ protections from 1st of July and changes to the EU ETS free Expected total return 22.4%

allowance sunsets reducing the risk of significant decarbonization capex increases;

Market Cap €47,864Mthe narrative for earnings and FCF growth amongst the EU steel producers is

arguably the strongest since the GFC. As by far the largest and most liquid of the EU US$55,178M

steel producers, MT is one of the biggest beneficiaries of the re-rating that is

happening in the European steel industry.

Counter seasonal shipment growth in 3Q’26 a harbinger for volume upside — Price Performance