ArcelorMittal SA | 2Q26 Results EBITDA in-line, inflecting order books in Europe

Research evidence excerpt

ArcelorMittal SA | 2Q26 Results EBITDA in-line, inflecting order books in Europe

Update

July 30, 2026 06:02 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MArcelorMittal SA | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

2Q26 Results EBITDA in-line, Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comAdahna Ekoku +44 20 7425-8959

Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

inflecting order books in Europe Ferdinand Huber

Research Associate

Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

ArcelorMittal SA (MT.AS, MT NA)

Strengthens our thesis In-line Largely unchanged

Carbon Steel | Luxembourg

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Stock Rating Overweight

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Industry View In-Line

Price target €54.30

Shr price, close (Jul 28, 2026) €59.06

Key Takeaways 52-WeekMkt cap, currRange(mn) €62.60-26.35US$49,502

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* US$8,361

3Q26 Europe outlook positive underpinned by inflecting order books, expect at EV, curr (mn)* US$71,078

least flat shipments QoQ

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

2H26 Shipments are still expected to be higher vs 1H26 across all regions.

2Q26 EBITDA broadly in-line; Europe strength offset by softer North America/

Brazil margins.

Net Debt slightly ahead of consensus expectations, Vallourec proceeds drove the

beat vs MSe.

Constructive outlook supports further margin improvement in 2H26, led by

Europe. 2H shipments are expected to exceed 1H across all segments, and European

3Q shipments are expected to be stable to slightly higher QoQ against a normal

seasonal decline on account of stronger order books. This has also prompted the

company to restart Fos Sur Mer, in addition to the recent restart of the Polish/