Steel: Repricing Europe’s Steel Market

Research evidence excerpt

Steel: Repricing Europe’s Steel Market

M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C H

Repricing Europe’s Steel Market

Jul 2026

Risk-Reward: Repricing Europe’s Steel Market

In Europe, policy is increasingly restricting imports. CBAM from 1 January 2026 and tighter

safeguards from 1 July should strengthen domestic pricing power and could leave the region structurally

short by 10–15mt, even without a demand recovery. Early evidence supports this: ArcelorMittal has

reportedly raised European HRC offers by €50/t to €770/t delivered, with September books full and lead

times extending into October despite weak demand. Turkey and Indonesia have already exhausted their

Q3 quotas, while India is more than 50% utilised; together, these origins represented around 45% of EU

HRC imports YTD. Alternative supply is unlikely to provide immediate relief given logistics, quality,

antidumping and other constraints. EU HRC spreads have risen to US$436/t versus a long-run average

of US$320/t, suggesting the tighter policy regime is already improving mill pricing power.

We remain constructive on a European margin recovery, with ArcelorMittal and Salzgitter our

preferred plays. Higher import parity, stronger policy support, improving utilisation and firmer order intake

should drive an EBITDA/t re-base and shift the profit pool back toward domestic mills. ArcelorMittal

offers the strongest volume flexibility, fixed-cost absorption and market-share upside, while Salzgitter

provides high domestic pricing sensitivity and HKM/slab optionality.

We remain constructive on the European stainless recovery, supported by CBAM and tighter safeguard

measures, which have driven a material reduction in imports. However, we see the first leg of the