ArcelorMittal (MT.AS): Q2‘26 results - inline EBITDA, stand out guidance for higher steel shipments in Q3‘26

Research evidence excerpt

ArcelorMittal (MT.AS): Q2‘26 results - inline EBITDA, stand out guidance for higher steel shipments in Q3‘26

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30 Jul 2026 03:08:48 ET │ 13 pages

ArcelorMittal (MT.AS)

Q2'26 results - inline EBITDA, stand out guidance for higher steel

shipments in Q3'26

CITI'S TAKE Buy

Short-Term View: Upside, expires 09-AUG-26

Q2'26 results for ArcelorMittal came in broadly inline to our estimates,

Price (29 Jul 26 16:30) €57.78 while the reported EBITDA at $2.06 billion was 1% ahead of company

Target price €67.00 compiled consensus. Group steel shipments at 13.4mt increased 5% vs

the last quarter, while all of the steel businesses delivered higher Expected share price return 16.0%

sequential EBITDA for the quarter, with the exception of mining. Group Expected dividend yield 1.0%

blended steel ASP at $963/t increased by 6% sequentially driving the 18% Expected total return 16.9%

sequential increase for the blended EBITDA at $154/t. The company has Market Cap €44,780M

delivered better than expected cash flow largely on account of softer US$51,351M

working capital outflows then expected, leading to net debt at $9.5 billion

vs $9.9 billion in our model. The outlook for Q3'26 is continuing to be

positive with CBAM and TRQs in Europe likely to help deliver flat to higher

steel shipments vs the traditional seasonality between 7-9% sequential Ephrem RaviAC

volume decline. We remain Buyer of the stock. +44-20-7986-2462

ephrem.ravi@citi.com

All-around increase in operating performance — Steel shipments and pricing in Krishan M Agarwal

the quarter has improved across the board with North America seeing the biggest +44-020-7986-4092

increase in the portfolio. Group steel production at 14.1mt and steel shipments at krishan.agarwal@citi.com

13.4mt increased 6% and 5% q/q respectively.