Casio Computer (6952.T): Q1 a positive surprise - Q1 actuals beat significantly, full-year guidance revised

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31 Jul 2026 08:49:44 ET │ 10 pages

Casio Computer (6952.T)

Q1 a positive surprise - Q1 actuals beat significantly, full-year guidance

revised

CITI'S TAKE

Buy

Price (31 Jul 26 15:30)

¥1,764.5

Target price

¥2,000.0

Expected share price return

13.3%

Expected dividend yield

2.8%

Expected total return

16.2%

Market Cap

¥386,965M

US$2,426M

April-June OP was ¥12.8bn (c3.4x YoY), significantly beating VA

consensus of ¥5.7bn. Results were strong even excluding the ¥2.1bn tariff

refund. The watch business grew +18% YoY in local currency terms,

delivering material growth following on from that seen in OctoberDecember. OP reached ¥11.8bn, up ¥7.5bn YoY (¥10.4bn/20.7% margin

excluding tariff refunds). The twin-axis strategy of Casio Watch volume

expansion and G-Shock margin improvement succeeded. Full-year OP

guidance was revised upward from ¥26bn to ¥34bn, significantly beating

VA consensus of ¥27.8bn, even excluding the ¥3bn tariff refund impact.

The company only revised up H1 guidance, leaving room for upward

revisions for H2.

Takero FujiwaraAC

Implications — We view these unexpectedly strong results as a positive surprise.

The company's twin-axis strategy for Casio Watch and G-Shock is resulting in

expansion beyond market expectations. We believe consensus will rise significantly.

However, the sound business shows little sign of profit improvement excluding tariff

refund effects and continues to concern over downside risks to the plan.

Consol.

3/25A

Sales

OP

RP

NP

EPS

PE

¥M

YOY (%)

¥M

YOY (%)

OPM(%)

¥M

YOY (%)

¥M

YOY (%)

X

261,757

-2.6

14,236

0.2

5.4

14,131

-21.1

8,064

-32.3

35

50.1

21.9

3/26A

276,267

5.5

23,071

62.1

8.4

25,684

81.8

18,227

126.0

81

3/27CE

295,000

6.8

26,000

12.7

8.8

26,000

1.2

18,500

1.5

82

21.4

3/27E

289,000

4.6

28,000

21.4

9.7

29,000

12.9

20,300

11.4

92

19.2

3/28E

296,000

2.4

32,000

14.3

10.8

33,000

13.8

23,100

13.8

108

16.4

3/29E

303,500

2.5

35,500

10.9

11.7

36,500

10.6

25,500

10.4

123

14.4

A: Actuals, E: Citi Research Ests, CE: Co. Ests, RE: Citi Research Revised Ests, CRE: Co. Revised Ests, NA: Not Available, NM: Not Meaningful