BioAge Labs Inc (BIOA.O): Mgmt Callback - ZEUS Data Lower Confidence in ASCVD, but NLRP3i Remains an Attractive Approach in Inflammatory Disease

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31 Jul 2026 13:27:41 ET │ 10 pages

BioAge Labs Inc (BIOA.O)

Mgmt Callback - ZEUS Data Lower Confidence in ASCVD, but NLRP3i

Remains an Attractive Approach in Inflammatory Disease

CITI'S TAKE

BIOA shares are meaningfully down (> -60%) following the news this

morning that Novo's ZEUS trial for ziltivekimab (anti-IL6) failed to

demonstrate a benefit on MACE (HR0.99). While we agree the data

readthrough negatively to BioAge's ASCVD thesis (our first take here), the

magnitude of the stock move seems overdone with EV approaching zero.

We caught up with management, who acknowledged the ZEUS data

suggest that IL-6 is not the primary driver of CV risk (too far downstream)

and that hsCRP appears to be not as strong of a biomarker for risk

reduction as previously published data had suggested. The silver lining is

that IL-1B, sitting upstream of IL-6, remains a valid target given CANTOS,

and NLRP3 inhibition has demonstrated clear IL-1B reduction.

Importantly, NLRP3 remains an attractive target across numerous other

indications (HS, ophthalmology, pericarditis, etc.), and management has

guided to potentially nominating a new indication later this year.

Next steps for BGE-102 - Following the ZEUS readout, management is evaluating

whether it makes sense to advance BGE-102 into an outcomes study next year (as

was previously guided) given the expense of a trial of that size and the need for a

partner. Later this year, the company remains on track to report data from the Ph2

QUELL trial in obese patients with CV risk factors. From this dataset, we are now

primarily focused on confirming safety and dose selection. The focus for BIOA now

shifts to ophthalmology, where a Ph2 proof-of-concept DME study is guided to

initiate in mid-2026 (topline data mid-2027), and to new indication selection.

Management highlighted their current cash would support running another Ph2

proof-of-concept study for a newly nominated indication.

Buy / High Risk

Price (30 Jul 26 16:00)

US$24.85

Target price

US$52.00

Expected share price return

109.3%

Expected dividend yield

0.0%

Expected total return

109.3%

Market Cap

US$1,105M

Samantha Semenkow, Ph.D.AC

Geoff Meacham, Ph.D.

Benjamin E.…