Diversified Growth Engine

Research evidence excerpt

Diversified Growth Engine

ce Price Target Pricing Power: Positive

Secular Growth: Positive

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull, Technology Diffusion: Positive

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 30

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes hereJul 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $855.00 BASE CASE $681.00 BEAR CASE $470.00

35x CY26e bull-case EPS 30x CY27e base-case EPS 24x CY27e bear-case EPS

Revenues CAGR of mid-teens over the Revenue grows low-double-digits from Revenues grow high-single-digits from CY26-

CY26-28 period as cross-border travel CY26-28 on resilient PCE spend across 28 as travel decels meaningfully and

comes in stronger than expected while markets, healthy cross-border travel domestic spending softens considerably in a

cross-border e-commerce provides demand, and high-teens services revenue weaker macro. Meanwhile, share gains in

meaningful upside, and MA takes share growth. Adj. EPS grows mid-teens for the international markets slows as competing

faster in international markets and with next several years even given growing scale domestic schemes or alternate payment

value-adding services. Investments in and share repurchases. types gain traction. Greater investment to

acquisitions and growth are more than defend market position leads to a slower

offset by growing scale advantages, enabling than expected mid-single-digits EPS CAGR.

low-20% EPS growth.

Morgan Stanley Research 5