MAV C2Q26 Preview: Acceleration in Domestic Spend; Still Healthy Travel Demand with Middle East Improving

Research evidence excerpt

MAV C2Q26 Preview: Acceleration in Domestic Spend; Still Healthy Travel Demand with Middle East Improving

Idea

July 23, 2026 04:25 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMPayments and Processing | North America James E Faucette

Equity Analyst

MA/V C2Q26 Preview: James.Faucette@morganstanley.comMeryl R Thomas, CFA +1 212 296-5771

Research Associate

Meryl.Thomas@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0774

Acceleration in Domestic Spend; Shefali Tamaskar

Shefali.Tamaskar@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4948

Still Healthy Travel Demand Michael N Infante

Michael.Infante@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-4631

with Middle East Improving

Payments and Processing

North America

We're encouraged by acceleration in US spending, and expect Industry View Attractive

VAS trends should continue to be a bright spot in results. Our

Exhibit 1 : Metrics Summary

travel tracker data pointed to slightly softer traffic across US Data We Track Signal

international departures/arrivals and airport data, though BankUS retailmanagementsales commentary and US card spend PositivePositive

US gasoline prices Positive

demand remains strong and ME showed improvement. AirlineAirportmanagementtraffic across commentaryUS, Europe, Asia PositiveNeutral

Intl retail sales Neutral

Remain OW MA & V amid healthy underlying trends and international travel, InternationalIATA RevenueCitizenPassengerArrivalsKilometersto US by Market NeutralNeutral

US International Departures by Region Neutral

with several underappreciated pillars. We think MA and V are well positioned into FX Volatility Slight Negative

C2Q earnings given the strength of underlying drivers, including healthy domestic Source: Morgan Stanley Research

spend data and bullish airline commentary around continued international travel