Broad-Based Strength Reinforces Resilient Growth Algo

Research evidence excerpt

Broad-Based Strength Reinforces Resilient Growth Algo

IdeaMgrowth vector. Visa is building the standards, protocols and trust

infrastructure required for agents to transact on behalf of consumers,

including Agent Score, Agent Directory and the Token Assurance Framework.

While adoption remains early and timing is difficult to predict, Visa’s global

network, credentials, tokenization and security capabilities position it to

capture agentic volumes and sell additional services as the market develops.

• FY26 Outlook now looks for ~13% revenue growth vs. pre-print MSe/Cons

of 13%/14% and prior guide of ~12-13%. Adj. EPS outlook calls for 14-15%

growth vs. pre-print MSe/Cons of 14%/15% and prior guide of ~13%.

• What we're looking for in '27: We forecast +11% Net Revenue Growth,

+11.8% Opex growth, and +13% EPS growth. Our revenue assumptions

include slower mid-20s VAS growth, as we contemplate tough comps from

M&A, World Cup and Olympics related contribution in '26, continued

stability in US domestic spending with growth normalizing at +6% for the

year, ongoing strength in cross border travel and eComm supporting +11%

International Transaction Fee revenue growth, and Incentives as % of gross

Revenues at 28% (vs. 28.7% in 2026E).

Changes to estimates: For FY26, our net revenue growth forecast moves to 14.3%

from 13.3% as we roll through 3Q outperformance, better domestic and cross-

border volume trends, and contemplate slightly faster VAS growth, offset by higher

incentives. Opex growth moves to 15.3% (from 13.7%). These changes, along with

higher non-operating expense, result in Adj. EPS of $13.18 (vs. $13.07 prior). For

FY27, we look for Net Revenue growth of 11% (unchanged), operating expense

growth of 11.8% (vs. 9% prior) as we account for expected reinvestment, and Adj.