Starbucks (SBUX): 3Q26 - SSStrong

Research evidence excerpt

Starbucks (SBUX): 3Q26 - SSStrong

Danilo Gargiulo +1 917 344 8475 danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.com 30 July 2026

DETAILS

KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE EARNINGS CALL

Q3 marked the fourth consecutive quarter of positive global comps and the second consecutive quarter of consolidated margin

expansion: consolidated revenue of $9.3B (-1% YoY on China transition to JV structure), global comps of +7.9%, consolidated

operating margin of 14.4% (+430bps), and EPS of $0.85 (+70% YoY). We are encouraged that EPS guidance moved in step

with the comp guide, but margin expansion was still fairly modest this quarter.

PERFORMANCE

• US comp: North America and US comp both accelerated further to 8.1% and 7.9% respectively, driven by 4.2 points of

transaction growth and 3.6 points of ticket. Ticket was driven by delivery mix, food attach, and innovation-led modifications.

We are encouraged that the composition remains transaction-led even as ticket strengthened, suggesting mix enrichment

rather than discounting is doing the work. Management disclosed that a little less than half of the 7.9% global comp was

attributable to closures, sales transfer, and delivery growth, with the remainder from underlying store performance and

innovation.

• Daypart progress: Morning remains the largest absolute transaction winner, while afternoon growth continues to lag.

Refreshers are emerging as the key afternoon lever, with customers gravitating to lower-caffeine and decaf versions in the

afternoon and higher-caffeine versions in the morning, alongside early food tests like wraps aimed at building the second

peak.

• Brand momentum: Brand affinity, consideration, and purchase intent all reached five-year highs in Q3, with sales growth