Starbucks Corp (SBUX.O): Setting the Table for F3Q26: Expect Better Flow-Thru

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Starbucks Corp (SBUX.O): Setting the Table for F3Q26: Expect Better Flow-Thru

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13 Jul 2026 20:59:40 ET │ 19 pages

Starbucks Corp (SBUX.O)

Setting the Table for F3Q26: Expect Better Flow-Thru

CITI'S TAKE

F3Q26 US top-line growth appears to have slowed Qtr/Qtr, though

numbers will likely stand out to the positive relative to larger, global quick

service brands and cost savings starting to materialize potentially mean Neutral

more compelling flow-thru (we have Yr/Yr NA store opex leverage for the first Price (13 Jul 26 16:00) US$107.34

time since 1Q24). That said, the first quarter of post-China sale modeling

will mean some noise in the aggregate PnL and we would still put a wide Target price US$108.00↑

confidence interval around earnings power out 1-2 years. Without a firmer from US$101.00

case for operating leverage driving positive estimate revisions and tougher Expected share price return 0.6%compares/slowing 1-year trends from here, we find it hard to underwrite

much upside to >33x our CY27E EPS est. Expected dividend yield 2.4%

Expected total return 3.0%

F3Q26 EPS expected 7/29 AMC at 4:15PM ET. Key topics/questions: (1) With the Market Cap US$122,335M

refranchising of China (and potentially more on the table) has SBUX thinking around

the $2bn in gross cost savings evolved (e.g., size and sources)? (2) Does SBUX

foresee other potential refranchising opportunities (e.g., Japan)? (3) With >9 months

of Green Apron in the system, has SBUX found ways to enhance labor deployment

Price Performanceand/or perhaps more store closure opportunities? (4) How is SBUX thinking through

pricing given growing direct/indirect competition within the beverage channel? How (RIC: SBUX.O, BB: SBUX US)

has the guest based evolved (including behavioral shifts) since COVID and where