Hyatt 2Q26: Strong Q2 and FY RevPAR but Mexico Package weakness and NUG downgrade likely weighs

Research evidence excerpt

Hyatt 2Q26: Strong Q2 and FY RevPAR but Mexico Package weakness and NUG downgrade likely weighs

NSTEIN FLASHMAIL

30 July 2026

Richard J. Clarke, FCA

+44 20 7676 6850

Global Hotels & Leisure richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.com

Hyatt Hotels Corp Niall Mitchelson

+44 20 7676 7144

Rating niall.mitchelson@bernsteinsg.com

Outperform Lasith Siriwardana

Price Target +44 20 7550 2191

lasith.siriwardana@bernsteinsg.com

H 202.00 USD

Hyatt 2Q26: Strong Q2 and FY RevPAR but Mexico Package

weakness and NUG downgrade likely weighs

Hyatt reported 2Q26 this morning, there is a conference call at 10am ET. Q2 was strong, with $297m of EBITDA a 2.4% beat to

consensus; hotel RevPAR of 5.9% was well ahead of our 5.1% expectations but the 1.2% decline in Net Package is surprising, and

looks a result of softer than expected Mexico demand. They take up the FY RevPAR guide to 3.5-4.5% from 2-4% previously. However,

this doesn't flow through to the EBITDA line, with no change to FY EBITDA or Gross Fee guidance. This looks partly caused by (1) a

downgrade to NUG, which is now expected at 6%, vs 6-7% previously (and a CMD guide of 6-8%) with some openings expected to

shift to 2027 (with the pipeline up 10%, phasing looks a reasonable explanation) and (2) a lower expectation on net package RevPAR

and the Distribution segment, due to weak Mexico demand. With the stock up 15% YTD, we expect the lack of EBITDA guidance

upgrade and the soft in year NUG will hit the stock today unless the call has a very clear message on this reversing in FY27.

Q2: Net fee revenues grew 7.3% but missed consensus by 0.5% with strong RevPAR (5.9%) offset by weak unit growth (just 3.9%).

EBITDA beat by 2.3% on decent cost control.

RevPAR: US RevPAR grew 6.7% helped by the World Cup and drove the acceleration from Q1.